Analysis of the Factors Influencing Junior High School students’ Academic Performance and the Construction of a Prediction Model
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Published
Nov 24, 2025
Abstract
Academic performance is a critical factor in determining the future academic path and the possibility of social class mobility of junior high school students. Exploring the influencing factors of academic performance and predicting them can help provide empirical evidence for a comprehensive and objective evaluation of students’ academic performance. Using CEPS 2014- 2015 data, we analyze the influencing factors of junior high school students’ performance based on the I-E-O model, use a nomogram to predict the likelihood of students’ achievement of excellent results, and visualize and analyze the important factors. It was found that, in terms of psychological characteristics, students’ and their parents’ educational expectations had a much greater impact on academic performance. Additionally, students’ motivation and persistence significantly influenced their academic performance. In terms of demographic characteristics, we found notable differences between boys and girls, with girls outperforming boys academically. In terms of student involvement, time spent on school homework and in cram schools has a significant impact on academic performance, but the impact of attending cram schools is negative. Finally, in terms of school characteristics, the level of school per student expenditure had a significant effect on achievement.
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Keywords
Junior High School Students, Academic Performance, Prediction Model, Educational Expectation
Supporting Agencies
No funding sources declared.
References
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Guan, Z. (2022). The influence of private tutoring on academic performance of junior high school students: Based on PSM-DID method estimation. China Economics of Education Review, 7(1), 57-74. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19512/j.cnki.issn2096-2088.2022.01.004.
Guill, K., Ömeroğulları, M., & Köller, O. (2022). Intensity and content of private tutoring lessons during German secondary schooling: Effects on students’ grades and test achievement. European Journal of Psychology of Education, 37(4), 1093–1114. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10212-021-00581-x
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Nauzeer, S. & Jaunky, V.C. (2019). Motivation and Academic Performance: A SEM Approach. International Journal of Environmental and Science Education, 14(1), 41-60. http://www.ijese.net/makale/2102.html
Pinquart, M., & Ebeling, M. (2020a). Parental educational expectations and academic achievement in children and adolescents—A meta-analysis. Educational Psychology Review, 32(2), 463–480. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-019-09506-z
Pinquart, M., & Ebeling, M. (2020b). Students’ expected and actual academic achievement – A meta-analysis. International Journal of Educational Research, 100, 101524. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijer.2019.101524
Podiya, J. K., Navaneetham, J., & Bhola, P. (2025). Influences of school climate on emotional health and academic achievement of school-going adolescents in India: A systematic review. BMC Public Health, 25, Article 54. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-21268-0
Sanders, C. E., Field, T. M., & Diego, M. A. (2001). Adolescents’ academic expectations and achievement. Adolescence, 36(144), 795–802. DOI: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11928883/
Sewell, W. H., Haller, A. O., & Portes, A. (1969). The educational and early occupational attainment process. American Sociological Review, 34(1), 82–92. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2092789
Sun, Y., Zhao, L., & Zhao, Z. (2025). Hukou status and children’s education in China. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 73(2), 979–1021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/729926
Tan, L. F., & Zhang, Z. Y. (2025). The current situation, problems, and optimization strategies for establishing new high-quality private schools: A case study of School X in Huanggang City. Asia-Pacific Education Research, 1(2). DOI: https://doi.org/10.62177/aper.v1i2.333
Yamamoto, Y., & Holloway, S. D. (2010). Parental expectations and children's academic performance in sociocultural context. Educational Psychology Review, 22(3), 189–214. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-010-9121-z
Yao, H., & Zhang, Y. (2022). “Screening” or “meritocracy”: Does the choice of a private school help students achieve higher academic performance?-Based on the PISA 2018 analysis of four provinces and municipalities in China. Frontiers of Education in China, 17(2), 181–206. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3868/s110-007-022-0009-6
Zang, Y., Wu, H. B., & Cheng, H. Q. (2020). On the training path of professional talents from the perspective of Astin’s I-E-O theory—In the case of the medical school of the University of Hong Kong and that of the National University of Singapore. Education Research Monthly, (02), 56-63. DOI: https://doi.org/10.16477/j.cnki.issn1674-2311.2020.02.009
Zhang, H. P., Liu, Y. C., Wu, X. H., & Zhang, Q. G. (2020). The influence of family-school partnerships on academic performance—The mediating role of student engagement. Education Research Monthly, (01), 3-11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.16477/j.cnki.issn1674-2311.2020.01.001
Zhu, Y. (2023). Study of the household registration system and academic performance of migrant workers’ children. Academic Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 3(3), 170–173. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54097/ajmss.v3i3.11127
Zysberg, L., & Schwabsky, N. (2020). School climate, academic self-efficacy and student achievement. Educational Psychology, 41(4), 467–482. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01443410.2020.1813690
Astin, A. W. (1984). Student involvement: A developmental theory for higher education. Journal of College Student Personnel, 25(4), 297–308.
Bao, W., & Zhang, X. Y. (2012). The multi-dimensional structure and influence mechanism of student academic involvement in China. Fudan Education Forum, 10(6), 20–28. DOI: https://doi.org/10.13397/j.cnki.fef.2012.06.012
Cheng, G., Du, S. H., & Yu, Q. (2022). Are your educational expectations rational? Research on effects of parent-child discrepancies in educational expectations on academic performance. Journal of East China Normal University (Educational Sciences), 40(1), 74-87. DOI: https://doi.org/10.16382/j.cnki.1000-5560.2022.01.006
Entwistle, N.J., Thompson, J., & Wilson, J.D. (1974). Motivation and study habits. Higher Education, 3, 379-396. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00153949
Eysenck, H. (2018). The dynamics of anxiety and hysteria: An experimental application of modern learning theory to psychiatry. Routledge.
Fishman, S. H. (2022). College-for-some or college-for-all? Inequality in the relationship between educational expectations and educational attainment across academic achievement. Social Science Research, 107, 102747. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2022.102747
Fu, C., Ou, H., Mo, T., & Liao, L. (2023). Effect mechanism of extracurricular tuition and implications on “double reduction” policy: Extracurricular tuition intensity, psychological resilience, and academic performance. Behavioral Sciences, 13(3), 217. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/bs13030217
Guan, Z. (2022). The influence of private tutoring on academic performance of junior high school students: Based on PSM-DID method estimation. China Economics of Education Review, 7(1), 57-74. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19512/j.cnki.issn2096-2088.2022.01.004.
Guill, K., Ömeroğulları, M., & Köller, O. (2022). Intensity and content of private tutoring lessons during German secondary schooling: Effects on students’ grades and test achievement. European Journal of Psychology of Education, 37(4), 1093–1114. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10212-021-00581-x
Huang, X. T., Guan, K. X., Xiong, G. H., Chen, H., & Lu, X. D. (2016). The impact of “super-high school” on educational equity and efficiency: An empirical study based on undergraduates academic performance data of University K. Education Research Monthly, (05), 32-37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.16477/j.cnki.issn1674-2311.2016.05.005
Iwuagwu, B. (2016). Environmental influence on students’ academic performance in secondary school. International Journal of Fundamental Psychology and Social Sciences, 6(1), 10–14. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14331/ijfpss.2016.330058
Kweon, B.-S., Ellis, C. D., Lee, J., & Jacobs, K. (2017). The link between school environments and student academic performance. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 23, 35–43. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2017.02.002
Li, J. L., & Hu, Y. M. (2021). How does “shooting for the stars” come true? —From the perspective of consistency and difference of parent-child educational expectation. Sociological Studies, 36(3), 204–224.
Li, S. Y., & Liu, A. Y. (2022). “Melancholic Children”: Does cram school participation lead to negative emotions? Causal inference based on Chinese Education Panel Survey (CEPS) data. Chinese Journal of Sociology, 42(2), 60-93. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15992/j.cnki.31-1123/c.2022.02.002
Liu, H. Y., & Shan, S. (2025). Reflections on implementing the policy of “No less than 2 hours of comprehensive physical activity per day for primary and secondary school students”. Journal of Physical Education, 32(2), 1-11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.16237/j.cnki.cn44-1404/g8.20250221.001
Mandrekar, J. N. (2010). Receiver operating characteristic curve in diagnostic test assessment. Journal of Thoracic Oncology, 5(9), 1315–1316. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1097/JTO.0b013e3181ec173d
Moreira-Morales, D. B., & García-Loor, M. I. (2024). Motivation in academic performance. International Research Journal of Management, IT & Social Sciences, 11(1), 30–38. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21744/irjmis.v11n1.2403
Nauzeer, S. & Jaunky, V.C. (2019). Motivation and Academic Performance: A SEM Approach. International Journal of Environmental and Science Education, 14(1), 41-60. http://www.ijese.net/makale/2102.html
Pinquart, M., & Ebeling, M. (2020a). Parental educational expectations and academic achievement in children and adolescents—A meta-analysis. Educational Psychology Review, 32(2), 463–480. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-019-09506-z
Pinquart, M., & Ebeling, M. (2020b). Students’ expected and actual academic achievement – A meta-analysis. International Journal of Educational Research, 100, 101524. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijer.2019.101524
Podiya, J. K., Navaneetham, J., & Bhola, P. (2025). Influences of school climate on emotional health and academic achievement of school-going adolescents in India: A systematic review. BMC Public Health, 25, Article 54. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-024-21268-0
Sanders, C. E., Field, T. M., & Diego, M. A. (2001). Adolescents’ academic expectations and achievement. Adolescence, 36(144), 795–802. DOI: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11928883/
Sewell, W. H., Haller, A. O., & Portes, A. (1969). The educational and early occupational attainment process. American Sociological Review, 34(1), 82–92. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2092789
Sun, Y., Zhao, L., & Zhao, Z. (2025). Hukou status and children’s education in China. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 73(2), 979–1021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/729926
Tan, L. F., & Zhang, Z. Y. (2025). The current situation, problems, and optimization strategies for establishing new high-quality private schools: A case study of School X in Huanggang City. Asia-Pacific Education Research, 1(2). DOI: https://doi.org/10.62177/aper.v1i2.333
Yamamoto, Y., & Holloway, S. D. (2010). Parental expectations and children's academic performance in sociocultural context. Educational Psychology Review, 22(3), 189–214. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-010-9121-z
Yao, H., & Zhang, Y. (2022). “Screening” or “meritocracy”: Does the choice of a private school help students achieve higher academic performance?-Based on the PISA 2018 analysis of four provinces and municipalities in China. Frontiers of Education in China, 17(2), 181–206. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3868/s110-007-022-0009-6
Zang, Y., Wu, H. B., & Cheng, H. Q. (2020). On the training path of professional talents from the perspective of Astin’s I-E-O theory—In the case of the medical school of the University of Hong Kong and that of the National University of Singapore. Education Research Monthly, (02), 56-63. DOI: https://doi.org/10.16477/j.cnki.issn1674-2311.2020.02.009
Zhang, H. P., Liu, Y. C., Wu, X. H., & Zhang, Q. G. (2020). The influence of family-school partnerships on academic performance—The mediating role of student engagement. Education Research Monthly, (01), 3-11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.16477/j.cnki.issn1674-2311.2020.01.001
Zhu, Y. (2023). Study of the household registration system and academic performance of migrant workers’ children. Academic Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 3(3), 170–173. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54097/ajmss.v3i3.11127
Zysberg, L., & Schwabsky, N. (2020). School climate, academic self-efficacy and student achievement. Educational Psychology, 41(4), 467–482. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01443410.2020.1813690
How to Cite
Yan, S., & Li, W. (2025). Analysis of the Factors Influencing Junior High School students’ Academic Performance and the Construction of a Prediction Model. Best Evidence in Chinese Education, 21(2), 2009–2037. https://doi.org/10.15354/bece.25.or026
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